MySportsAnalytics

What This Is

This system projects a prospect's career NHL points-per-game (PPG) using an NHL-equivalency (NHLe) framework built independently from historical graduate data. Every factor value is derived purely from players who actually reached the NHL — nothing is approximated or guessed.

For each prospect, the model converts their regular-season production in one or more feeder leagues into an NHL-equivalent PPG, then adjusts for age relative to draft eligibility.

How It Works

League Factors. Each league has a conversion factor representing how well production in that league historically translates to the NHL. These factors are computed from historical graduates and vary by the player's draft-year timing — the same PPG in the SHL as an 18-year-old carries a different weight than at 20.

Draft-Year Offset. The model tracks how old a prospect is relative to their first NHL draft eligibility (using the NHL's September 15 cutoff). Younger players producing at a high level are rewarded; older prospects are discounted.

Sample Size. Seasons with very few games played are weighted less heavily than full seasons, reducing noise from small samples.

Multi-League & Multi-Season. When a prospect played in multiple leagues or across multiple seasons, all qualifying stints are combined into a single GP-weighted projection. This is particularly important for older draft-eligible players with two or three seasons of data.

Late-Developing Prospects. For players who are significantly older than typical draft age, a ceiling adjustment is applied to reflect the reduced probability of reaching full NHL potential.

Projection Tiers

Tier	Comparable NHL Role
Elite / PPG+	Franchise-level scorer
Star	Top-6 forward or top-pair defender
Top-6 / First Pair	Solid top-6 or top-4 contributor
Middle-6 / Second Pair	Reliable depth piece
Bottom-6 / 7D	Roster fringe / depth
Fringe NHLer	AHL-level ceiling
No Factor	Insufficient historical data for their league

⚠️ Tiers reflect offensive production potential only — skating, defensive play, compete level, and character are not captured here. A Bottom-6 projection still projects an NHL player. Use alongside traditional scouting, not instead of it.

Rankings Blend

The 2026 Draft tab lets you blend this model's projections with Central Scouting (CS) rankings using a slider from 100% CS to 100% Model. The default 50/50 blend balances scouting consensus with data-driven projection. CS ranks are normalized separately within the INT and NA lists before blending.

Data & Coverage

Factor values are built from a historical database of NHL graduates spanning 2003–2025, covering 60+ leagues worldwide. Not every league/age combination has sufficient historical data to produce a reliable factor — those cells are marked "No Factor" on the board. Current season stats reflect the 2025–26 season.